July 2nd, 2018 by
U.S. Treasury yields have fallen to one-month lows as the fears of a trade war impacting global growth has increased the demand for safe haven assets. These fears sent U.S. stocks lower as investors have been hesitant to take on additional risks. Additionally, the spread between 2-Year and 10-Year Treasury notes traded at 32 basis points at the end of June, which is the flattest level since 2007.
June 4th, 2018 by
Just weeks after U.S. 10 year treasury rates eclipsed 3.00%, the benchmark rate plunged nearly 20 bps on fears of political unrest in Italy and investors’ flight to the safety of US treasury bonds. This was the largest one day drop in treasury rates since Britain voted to exit the European Union two years ago. While treasury rates have rebounded slightly as Italian credit concerns ease, political uncertainty abroad and at home will continue to intersect with our country’s monetary policy in determining the direction of interest rates in the near term.
April 26th, 2018 by
While uncertainty remains around a potential “trade war” with China, according to the minutes from the most recently released Federal Reserve meeting on March 20-21 policymakers felt that the U.S. economy would firm further and that inflation would rise in the coming months. Core CPI inflation has increased at a 2.9% annual rate over the past year and unemployment remains low. This has led several economists to believe that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates three more times in 2018.